KEMPTON PARK RACES WEDNESDAY 28th JANUARY 2015

After another winning meeting last week we come into this Wednesday full of expectation. Oh and a profit of +33 points too. 

Shows that the strategy of picking on the handicap races can be worthwhile, we will stick with this through the AW season and will be a nice filler until the real flat season begins. Our Pontefract system will begin again then, the first meeting of their new season will be on Tuesday 7th April and more information will appear nearer the time.

Wednesday night is a 6 race card with 5 handicaps for us to get stuck into, a link to the race cards can be found below and the opening race begins under the lights at 16:45;

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/kempton-park/28-01-2015/fast-cards

16:45 - 7f Handicap -- They turn out Twilight Angel again quickly after an improved effort here last week finishing 5th at 50/1, is much shorter tonight so swerved for a chance on WINDY MILLER in his first handicap has a very low mark and looks worth a go to see what he can do in this weak company. [4th 16/1]

17:15 - 1m 4f Handicap -- Will be interesting to see if DANCE FOR LIVVY retains any ability after an absense of 2 years, has a basement mark as a result of that enforced holiday but is only 7yo and could still have a future in handicaps. [12th 50/1]

18:15 - 7f Handicap -- Only the 8 declared for this event, and the 2 outsiders Dutiful Son and Seek The Fair Land were well behind last time out and cant really make a case for their sudden change of fortune. We'll side with top weight CORPORAL MADDOX instead. [7th 12/1]

18:45 - 1m Handicap [3yo's London Mile Qualifier] -- 4 runner handicap on the AW what is racing coming to ? GREATEST JOURNEY won comfortably last time and should go in again as long as the race is true run and not a 2f sprint. [WON 8/11]

19:15 - 6f Handicap [3yo's only] -- Trainer runs both Military Music and MISU PETE with the latter an interesting selection off bottom weight here, was hampered last time which wouldn't have helped and with a better ride might get closer now trying his luck at Handicapping. [WON 25/1]

WOW What a week it's been, and yet again the last race of the day pops up with the big winner. With these results added to our carried over profit we now stand at a very healthy +55.72 points to a 1pt level stake at SP, the returns on Betfair were much better having matched Misu Pete at 50s earlier on.

Stick with us on Wednesday nights -- under the lights is the place to be. Until next week...  

KEMPTON PARK RACES WEDNESDAY 21st JANUARY 2015

ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH DEAR FRIENDS, ONCE MORE ... YES IT'S ANOTHER WEDNESDAY SO ALL READY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AW RACING UNDER THE LIGHTS AT KEMPTON PARK.

THIS WILL BE THEIR THIRD FLAT MEETING OF 2015 AND THE RACE CARD CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING URL PATH;

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/kempton-park/21-01-2015/fast-cards

WITH THE DIVISION OF THE FINAL RACE TONIGHT WE'VE A BUMPER 6 HANDICAP RACES ON THIS 8 RACE CARD SO WE ARE IN FOR A BUSY EVENING WHICH WILL GET UNDERWAY AT 16:30;


16:30 - 6f Handicap - TWINLIGHT ANGEL [forecast odds 33/1] finished 5th at 50/1 showing signs of improvement given it had a wide draw I expect to see this one out again at Kempton soon.

18:00 - 1m 4f Handicap - HERMOSA VAQUERA [forecast odds 40/1] finished 8th 66/1.

18:30 - 6f Handicap - GALAGO [forecast odds 25/1] finished 6th 33/1

19:00 - 1m Handicap - NEWTON BOMB [forecast odds 25/1] finished 13th 50/1

19:30 - 1m Handicap [Div1] - TIGER STONE [forecast odds 33/1] finished 6th 25/1

20:00 - 1m Handicap [Div2] - JACKPOT [forecast odds 33/1] WON 25/1 GET IN

As usual we are aiming for some reasonable outsiders in the handicaps, all of the above are available about 25/1 or better and we can make use of the place markets too, just one place gives us a profit. 

Had to wait till the finale to get a result but what a result and that's another profitable night out this year, +20 points profit to a level stake at SP was considerably better on the exchanges. 

C/F + 33 points this year.

ASCOT NH CARD SATURDAY 17th JANUARY 2015

Making a rare appearance at a NH venue this season to even out the gaps in the AW service (to paraphrase the announcer on London Underground).

This weekend it's ASCOT that will fill the gap left vacant by the lack of an evening meeting at Wolves. Looks a good card with Sprinter Sacre the star attraction at 3pm (assuming it's on as loads of bad weather forecast this week), wrap up warm and don't forget to fill that hip flask too. 

Overnight declarations on Friday will allow us to put up some selections for the weekend. Racing is due to begin at 12:40 and it's a 7 race card which can be found at the following location;

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/ascot/17-01-2015/fast-cards

Here we go with our selections for the meeting;

12:40 - Poor turnout of 4 runners, the odds on fav TOP NOTCH looks a shoe in with a clear round but we'll have a small bet on MAXIE T instead and see if the forecast can be collected too. [3rd 25/1]

1:15 - Again a small field of just 5 but at least it's more competitive with very little to differentiate between them all. VIVACCIO is top rated and carries 11-8 as a result, so might find it tricky to concede a stone to CLONDAW DRAFT from the McCain yard. [4th 10/1]

1:50 - If this race was being run at Kempton it would look really good for CAROLE'S SPIRIT but away from there she's not the same beast it seems. IF MISCHIEVOUS MILLY stays the 3m trip then will take the world of beaten, I think she will in this company. [8th 5/1]

2:25 - LYVIUS for Henderson and Geraghty next up, but don't discount their other runner off a low weight ONE LUCKY LADY, on the basis of form it can't win but the yard have an annoying habit of doing well with their second strings in races. [7th 20/1] 

3:00 - The race of the day now with SPRINTER SACRE back in action, is shade of odds on but reports this week suggest it hasn't been backed. A race to watch and if anything is going to turn over the good horse it'll probably be DODGING BULLETS [NAP] from Paul Nicholls yard. TWINLIGHT from Ireland is also very interesting but Bullets looks the one today. [WON 7/2]

3:35 - A dozen runners at last a decent field, NICEONEFRANKIE is seeking a hat-trick of wins here and should go well from the front, King Edmund is a grand old servert but the 12 shouldn't be up to winning in this grade now, and preference is for BOBCATBILLY with Barry Geraghty an interesting booking.

4:05 - And back to a small field to end on where OUT SAM is odds on to win another novice event with a penalty but I will side with REMIND ME LATER for the Moore stable shame only the 7 runners else the place option would be more flexible.

Results will appear here later on 

KEMPTON PARK RACES, WEDNESDAY 14th JANUARY 2015

WEDNESDAY COMES AROUND AGAIN SO IT'S OFF TO SUNBURY ON THAMES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AW RACING UNDER THE LIGHTS AT KEMPTON PARK. 

THIS WILL BE THEIR SECOND FLAT MEETING OF 2015 AND THE RACE CARD CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING URL PATH;

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/kempton-park/14-01-2015/fast-cards

ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE 5 HANDICAP RACES ON THIS 6 RACE CARD SO WE ARE IN FOR A BUSY EVENING WHICH WILL GET UNDERWAY AT 16:35;


16:35 - 1m Handicap - Failed to make all last time over 1m 2f but has won races here before with a female jockey up (that was with Kirsty Milczarek) so we like the possible chances of CHANDRAYAAN here with Hayley Turner booked and a price of 25/1 forecast. Has a 25% win/place strike rate and not without hope. [7th 25/1]

17:10 - 1m Handicap [London Mile Qualifier] - COMRADE BOND [NAP] was placed over the trip at Wolves at 50/1 last time out is still a decent price and has Jimmy Quinn to assist. Reasonable win/place rate too over 40% will be getting into the place market on this one. [12th 33/1]

17:40 - 1m 4f Handicap - The step up in trip helped THIRD STRIKE get a lot closer than he had done previously and therefore the chance is taken that this trip will see a little more improvement to the point that "Third" is the least we can expect him to strike for us. [6th 25/1]

18:10 - 7f Handicap - Back over what appears to be his best trip MY SON MAX can go well once more here, off a mark a few pounds lower than last win and riders 3lb claim a bonus. Is forecast 25/1 so we'll take that for the win/place. [NON RUNNER]

19:10 - 7f Handicap - Another who has won over this trip off a higher mark than today is BLACKTHORN STICK and has another chance to put his best foot forward in this finale, won a similar race this time last season, might pay to strike early in the year before handicap goes up again. [2nd 8/1]

RESULTS WILL UPDATE LATER ON IN THE EVENING.

THE RETURN OF GREAT LEIGHS ON SUNDAY ....

It's now called CHELMSFORD CITY which is a nice throwback to my days of watching my football team AFC Wimbledon play in the Ryman Premier / Conference South days.

Nowadays though it's the new name for the troubled AW venue in Essex, which became one of the new venues to the racing fixture list in April 2008, only to suffer many problems and go into administration and lose it's fixtures in Jan 2009. It's been a long road back with several false dawns so I do sincerely hope they are all ready to go and succeed this time around. 

Sunday will be the first of 58 fixtures throughout 2015, I will be keen to follow how they get on, believe they've put up a new stand and better facilities so it will be interesting to see how things develop. Having lost Hereford and Folkestone in the last few years and with other courses changing their criteria (Newcastle installing an AW surface, Wetherby running flat races in April) it's clear there is still a wind of change in the horse-racing world. 

Here is a quick link to Sundays card, 

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/chelmsford-city/11-01-2015/fast-cards

And we'll have the following selections for this opening fixture and look forward to hearing how things go, so I do hope the weather is good for anyone travelling, could be windy I hear.

12:50 -- REBELLIOUS GUEST [7th 9/1]

1:20 -- PIN UP [6th 7/2]

1:50 -- LUIS VAZ DE TORRES [3rd 3/1]

2:20 -- IT MUST BE FAITH [2nd 11/4]

2:50 -- ANONYMOUS JOHN [NAP]  [2nd 5/1]

3:20 -- RIZAL PARK [7th 3/1]

3:50 -- SILENT PURSUIT [8th 10/1]

Results were a bit of a near miss here and there, not a big shock given the lack of true form here to go on, it'll improve and good luck to all involved with the course, hope you survive a bit longer than the last time.

NEW YEAR BACK TO KEMPTON ON WEDNESDAYS. 7th JANUARY 2015

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE OUT THERE.

HOPE THAT THE YEAR HAS BEEN KIND TO YOU SO FAR, NOW THAT'S ALL OVER FOR ANOTHER YEAR IT'S TIME TO COME BACK TO NORMALITY AND LOOKING TO EARN A FEW QUID BETWEEN NOW AND CHELTENHAM. DOES IT SOUND ODD USING A FLAT RACING SYSTEM AND TALKING ABOUT THE BIG NH MEETING? WELL MAYBE I AM ODD ...

KEMPTON HAVE PACKED UP AFTER THEIR BIG BOXING DAY KING GEORGE MEETING AND IT'S BACK TO NORMALITY NOW ON WEDNESDAY EVENINGS. THEIR FIRST MEETING OF 2015 IS ON 7th JAN AND THE QUICK CARD IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING URL PATH;

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/kempton-park/07-01-2015/fast-cards

THERE ARE 5 HANDICAPS ON THIS 6 RACE CARD SO WE ARE IN FOR A BUSY EVENING WHICH GETS UNDERWAY AT 16:35;

16:35 - 7f Handicap - Class 7 event so no stars here, in fact no real surprise whatever wins as they are all hopelessly out of form. Trainer Ann Stokall is known for having some big price "surprise" winners and places, she has HOLD THE STAR [Non Runner] who has at least won and placed the win being a 100/1 shot a couple of years back. Hasn't run since May last year, worth a risk at massive price for the place, if getting away on terms (can fluff the start), not a race to be heavily involved with. 

17:40 - 7f Handicap - A very tight looking handicap can go the way of MARJONG [5th 10/1] who seems to run consistently off this sort of mark, has a good jockey on board (Hayley Turner) and she is in receipt of lumps of weight from more fancied runners. Priced up as the outsider of the field and worth a punt win/ place if all 8 line up. 

18:10 - 1m 4f Handicap (Amateurs) - Don't usually get involved in these sorts of races given the unknown abilities about many of the jockey's. However, the outsider in this field ESTIBDAAD [6th 50/1] can be backed at 50/1 and yet on the four occasions he's run at this course has managed to place every single time. Is probably well out the handicap hence the price but in a race of this nature might find the fancied runners not running to their true mark. 

Not a race to get too deep into, might be worth a cheeky 1pt win/place though if price holds up.

18:40 - 1m 3f Handicap - The recent poor run of ALDEBURGH [WON 20/1] could be excused as it was his first for some months, would need to show more but has bits and pieces of form from races at Lingfield and here earlier last year that might given him a place chance at 20/1 if that last run was just to blow the cobwebs away? 

Great winner ... love it when a plan comes together.


19:10 - 6f Handicap - Has been running over a little further and regularly placed but are still looking at PICK A LITTLE [8th 20/1] for this finale at a big price seems consistent enough on all the AW tracks that the change in trip shouldn't be an issue. 



A nice profit of +17 points to a 1pt level stake at SP on the first meeting of the year. Will look to work a system / staking plan for each of the Kempton Park and Wolves meetings. Shall keep them separate so that I can do some comparisons later in the year how we are doing, nice start though. 

FA CUP ROUND 3, WIMBLEDON vs LIVERPOOL THE FULL TIME REPORT

FULL TIME SCORE
AFC WIMBLEDON 1 -- 2 LIVERPOOL
A Akinfenwa (36)             S Gerrard (12, 62 mins)

So it's not an upset tonight in the end after a piece of magic by Gerrard, even so what a great effort by the lads a division four side against a team full of internationals. This was no reserve side put out and we gave them a game. 

Didn't fancy playing Bolton anyway... 

Action highlights

45 mins - Liverpool kick off the second half and Dons are now attacking the "Tempest" end with the fans in good voice still.

46 mins - Throw in near corner flag for Dons, cross by Kennedy and deflected shot by Sammy Moore out for another corner to Dons. 

47 mins - Barrett header cleared off line by Gerrard, he's everywhere tonight, git. 

50 mins - Ball into the box Gerrard falls down again.

51 mins - Akinfenwa finds Rigg in the box, shot high over the bar. Rigg is awesome so far, really up for this.

52 mins - Henderson has a shot from outside of the box, hits his own player, cleared.

56 mins - Liverpool counter attack down the left, Gerrard cross goes out for a Womble throw in.

59 mins - Liverpool happy to pass about a bit and take the sting out of the game, Balotelli warming up.

61 mins - Foul by Fuller on Coutinho edge of the area, free kick to Liverpool and Yellow card for Fuller. 

62 mins - Gerrard scores a cracking free kick as a result of that foul, 1-2 Liverpool, turning point in the game, Shea had no chance into far corner of goal, typical Gerrard strike, getting beaten by one quality player.

68 mins - Break by Gerrard and finds Lambert in space, great save by Shea to keep it 1-2.

70 mins - shocking dive by Gerrard, wins a free kick but clearly going down long before defender got to him. Takes the free kick and misses. Good.

75 mins - Liverpool passing about easily now and looking in control, tired legs for the Dons players but they still been in the game. Gerrard the difference between the sides tonight.

79 mins - Henderson corner cleared, finds Skertal who's shot is blocked and cleared to Tubbs who is fouled, some restbite for Dons with 10 mins to go.

80 mins - Substitutes, bit late really, Balotelli replaces Rickie Lambert for Liverpool and Sean Rigg is replaced by Adebayo Azeez for Dons.

82 mins - Balotelli finds Gerrard in the box who plays it out to Coutinho but shot is saved by Shea.

83 mins - Ball given away to Balotelli, but excellent tackle by Fuller to deny him.

85 mins - Wimbledon corner cleared by Liverpool again and break quickly with a 4 on 1 chance but saved by Shea, should have been 1-3 now still in the game.

86 mins - more subs, too late, Francomb and Moore are off replaced by Sutherland and Pell. 

89 mins - time nearly up, plenty of possession by Liverpool and few chances for Dons to break, 3 mins of added on time left. 

90 mins - Big punt forward finds Azeez in box, tackled by keeper, cleared corner Dons. Last chance. 

Full Time - 1-2 ... Great effort, gave it their all with such a gulf in divisions and experience, Rigg awesome, Akinfenwa deserved his goal, fans still singing.

Away to Stevenage on Saturday ! 

FA CUP ROUND 3, WIMBLEDON vs LIVERPOOL THE HALF TIME REPORT

HALF TIME SCORE 
AFC WIMBLEDON  1 -- 1 LIVERPOOL
A Akinfenwa (36)               S Gerrard (12 mins)

So having been drawn at home in Round 4 against Bolton Wanderers the mighty AFC Wimbledon are currently more than holding their own and doing very well creating more than their fair share of chances. 

Action highlights

2 mins - Sean Rigg puts in his "Reducer" on Javi Manquillo and gets a throw in for the Dons - get stuck in lad.

8 mins  - Flick on by Akinfenwa finds Rigg free into the Liverpool area, shot across goal wide and goal kick the decision, needed that to find Tubbs I think.

12 mins - Dons fans are silenced by a cross from ? and a header into the bottom corner by one Mr S Gerrard (who?) from the middle of the box. 0-1 Liverpool

25 mins - Not much happening since their goal, scrapy play in possession, hopefully we'll see Ballotelli later so he can be sent off. 

28 mins - better. Cross from Francomb clear by Skertal with Tubbs closing in for the tap in. 

29 mins - Rigg shoots from 6 yards following corner and tipped over by Mignolet for another corner to the Dons, delivered to centre of goal and headed over by Goodman.

33 mins - Big punt forward (reminiscent of old school Wimbledon) bounces to Tubbs in the area and flicked wide of goal, big chance should have put that away.

35 mins - Corner by Rigg we are getting past the back line regularly now and need make this count. 

36 mins - BEAST SCORES !! 1-1 and the crowd go wild. Deserved goal from Akinfenwa, first to react to a corner that was not cleared by Liverpool. Game on now. 

38 mins - Akinfenwa booked for persistent fouling, bit harsh but might need to be careful in 2nd half. 

44 mins - Brenden Rodgers looks a bit pissed off, Liverpool not creating much now. Half time approaching, 1 min of stoppage time. 

45 mins - Steven Gerrard falls over (not for the first time) to a big cheer from the home fans. 

HALF TIME 1-1

Dons Starting XI -- 20 Shea, 02 Fuller, 33 Goodman, 27 Barrett, 17 Kennedy, 07 Francomb, 04 Bulman, 08 Moore, 11 Rigg, 10 Akinfenwa, 09 Tubbs

Subs -- 06 Bennett, 12 Pell, 14 Azeez, 23 Oakley, 26 McDonnell, 29 Harrison, 31 Sutherland

AFC WIMBLEDON vs LIVERPOOL FA CUP ROUND 3 MONDAY 5th JANUARY 2015

"The crazy gang have beaten the culture club" John Motson 1988

The FA CUP is back in town and we've had a weekend of goals, shocks and near misses. Monday night is the tie of the round for me though as it pairs my club AFC WIMBLEDON with the mighty Liverpool FC for the first time in their current guise but with so much history for the Wimbledon name and supporters especially the 1988 Cup Final which I'm sure you need no reminding of (we won 1-0 by the way). 

Huge underdogs once again for tonight's game Wimbledon 
do at least arrive on the back of a good December for a change, back to back wins against Portsmouth (0-2 away) and Exeter (4-1 home). But we need to bear in mind that in 1988 the two teams were in the same division at least, this time around however there's a huge gulf from Premier League to Division Four [71 places between the two teams]

Reformed in 2002 following the ridiculous decision to allow Wimbledon FC to relocate to Milton Keynes the rise back to the Football league from the Combined Counties League in only 9 years is remarkable, and the story is worth remembering that when the cup final was played back in 1988 the Dons had only been in the league for 11 years. 

"Not in the wider interests of football...." FA Commission shortly after approving the move to Milton Keynes and creating a football franchise no one wants. Refers to the plan to reform Wimbledon by the fans which we did and in 9 years rose again to the football league.

AFC Wimbledon likely to start with a strong attacking line up that includes the "strongest footballer in the world -- according to FIFA 15". Adebayo Akinfenwa, here are some stats to compare him with Liverpool's star player...

ADEBAYO AKINFENWA vs RAHEEM STERLING

32 AGE 20

6ft 1in HEIGHT 5ft 6in

86.17kg WEIGHT 67.57kg

11 CLUBS PLAYED FOR 1

London, England PLACE OF BIRTH Kingston, Jamaica

97 FIFA STATS - STRENGTH 67

45 FIFA STATS - ACCELERATION 94

41 FIFA STATS - AGILITY 88

59 FIFA STATS - AGGRESSION 34

54 FIFA STATS - SPRINT SPEED 92

9 GOALS THIS SEASON 6

AFC Wimbledon likely starting line up ;
Shea, Fuller, Goodman, Barrett, Kennedy, Francomb, Moore, Bulman, Rigg, Akinfenwa, Tubbs

Odds (from William Hills)
AFC Wimbledon - 11/1
Draw - 9/2
Liverpool - 1/4