KEMPTON PARK RACES WEDNESDAY 25th NOVEMBER 2015

Good evening all.

After a losing week last time out we move ever closer to the end of the year and we are still ahead (but only just) with a small profit figure of +1.22 The Jumps season is now well under way and the AW season will carry on with more races at Lingfield, Wolves, Chelmsford and of course here at Kempton. Newcastle should be added to that list during next year and we will see how that starts whenever it actually happens

I am sure that the Kempton staff are looking ahead to their big meeting of the whole year on Boxing Day but the weekly bread and butter meetings are just as important.

If we can keep in front for the whole year that'll be impressive enough for me whatever the final figure. Anyway lets crack on with tonight and target a few more winners across this line once again....

A link to tonight's race card can be found here;
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/kempton-park/25-11-2015/fast-cards

Tonight is an 8 race card, with the division of the 1m 2f Handicap we now have four 3 handicaps to ponder over, so we shall also take in the valuable Wild Flower Stakes a 1m 4f contest at 18:15 as well, a race worth over £20k to the winner.

Racing commences here at 16:15 with a 5f Maiden event and concludes at 19:15 with an Apprentice handicap over 1m.

The going on the polytrack is Standard, and there is rain currently forecast during the day the cold weather is here so wrap up warm, take a hip flask, give a stranger a hug or whatever you need to do to keep warm.

Here we go with our selections for tonight's handicaps;

16:45 -- 1m 2f Handicap Div 1

This event has been split into two divisions and the opening heat can go to PINK RIBBON who has won a couple of events at Lingfield in the past few months and having had a 6 week lay off could be good value to take another step forward here. [Result -- 2nd 15/2]

17:15 -- 1m 2f Handicap Div 2

The second division has 11 declared, a race where the fav seems to be SPRING DIXIE but I would want to lay a horse that has 5 seconds in a row to their name and was stone cold last when seen on the All Weather here.

CASTLE TALBOT doesn't have a lot of experience but should give a good account of themselves here for Richard Hughes. [Result -- 7th 5/2]

18:45 - 1m 4f Wild Flower Stakes

The valuable feature of tonight's card where 10 are declared and OSIPOVA [9th 9/1] can take full advantage of all the weight allowances she receives and record another win. 

The top weight FIRE FIGHTING [WON 4/1] should also give a good account, this is a slight downgrade and should be competitive despite top weight.

19:15 -- 6f Handicap

The spring handicap is up next, worth over 12k to the winner and of the twelve that line up I'll take INTRANSIGENT [2nd 7/1] along with HALLELUJAH [6th 8/1] against the field in an attempt to catch the winner.

19:45 - 1m Apprentice Handicap

Tonight's finale is a max field of 14 over the mile course, it's an apprentice race and "hand n heels" only so it does sometimes mean that form can be ignored, it's about how the jockey can coax the horse with the minimum of fuss. 

TSARGLAS [12th 20/1] won a similar event a few races ago and might be worth a look along with SUPA SEEKER [4th 14/1] but it's a race that could well be run several times over with completely different results.

Staked -- 8 points

Returns -- 5 points

One winner and a few places, but the overall balance is now into a loss for the first time in ages, not much but losing 3 points tonight means we take forward a -1.78pts loss to next weekend.

We'll return here next week on Wednesday 2nd December.

The sun goes down ... thankfully the lights are on.

KEMPTON PARK RACES WEDNESDAY 18th NOVEMBER 2015

Good evening all .

Moving towards the end of the year and we are still ahead with a small profit figure of +5.22 The Jumps season is now well under way and the AW season will carry on with more races at Lingfield, Wolves, Chelmsford and of course here at Kempton.

I am sure that the Kempton staff are looking ahead to their big meeting of the whole year over Xmas but the weekly bread and butter meetings are just as important.

If we can keep in front for the whole year that'll be impressive enough for me whatever the final figure. Anyway lets crack on with tonight and target a few more winners across this line once again....

A link to tonight's race card can be found here;
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/kempton-park/18-11-2015/fast-cards

Tonight is an 8 race card with the division of the maiden event, we have only 3 handicaps to ponder over, so we shall also take in the valuable Listed 1m Hyde Stakes contest at 18:25 too. Racing commences here at 16:25 with a 1m 2f Handicap event and concludes at 19:55 with a 1m 4f handicap.

The going on the polytrack is Standard, and there is rain currently forecast during the day the cold weather is here so wrap up warm, take a hip flask, give a stranger a hug or whatever you need to do to keep warm. 

Here we go with our selections for tonight's handicaps;


16:25 -- 1m 2f Handicap
A really awful handicap to open with, there's just the 3lb difference between all 14 runners that line up so they should all be finishing in a big bunch at the end. 

Very much a shot in the dark but there are two here that have already done us well earlier in the season and we'll go in again with ESTIBDAAD [Non Runner] along with THE GAY CAVALIER [10th 5/1] with the latter having won twice of a mark of 74 so is effectively 6lb better off tonight.


18:55 - 1m Listed Stakes
A nice prize for a midweek all weather meeting, £20k+ on offer to the winner and 10 line up to challenge. The front of the market is dominated by the two Godolphin horses RICHARD PANKHURST / VERY SPECIAL who have some good winning form between them but seem too short price for me tonight.

GORDON LORD BYRON [5th 8/1] has been going consistently in better grade than this all year and if not over the top by now the drop down from Group One to Listed class should make him hard to beat. 

I will side with the much travelled Irish raider along with SOVEREIGN DEBT [4th 3/1] another who has been winning Group races this season and should be ok over this mile trip too.


19:25 -- 2m Handicap
Quite a good staying handicap to follow the listed contest, 13 declared and quite wide open. The bottom weight PERCY VEER looks too short a price as he's not proved at the trip and up in class too so will look to lay that one. [2nd 4/1]

NOBLE SILK has at least been tried in this sort of grade and is proven at the trip so will be the one for the short list tonight [Non Runner].

19:55 - 1m 4f Handicap
And so to our finale tonight over a mile and half, where PRECISION FIVE [2nd 14/1] can get back to form on the flat after failing to fire over hurdles of late. 

Has win/place form on the AW and Turf so will be taking a good look at the place market at 14/1 forecast in this tonight.

Got the place win here in the last which helped tonight, but for the purpose of the ongoing system stats we lost 4 points having failed to land a winner and just a pair of non runners.


Staked -- 6 points
Returns -- 2 points (2 non runners)

Overall balance +1.22 points profit

We'll return here next week on Wednesday 25th November.

The sun goes down ... thankfully the lights are on.

2015/2016 FOOTBALL SEASON. AFC WIMBLEDON vs PORTSMOUTH (A)

LIVE ON SKY SPORTS 1
2:30PM SUNDAY 15th NOVEMBER

After last weekends disappointment in the FA Cup, losing to a stoppage time goal to Forest Green Rovers, the Dons are off down to PORTSMOUTH for a game on Sunday afternoon which will be televised live on Sky Sports. 

Last season saw Wimbledon do the double over Pompey a Boxing Day win for the Dons 2-0 (Sutherland, Tubbs) down at Fratton Park and the return fixture saw a 1-0 (Chorley og) win at Kingsmeadow. Games which featured a lot of yellow cards and a red in the first game, not dirty teams but competitive and if I can get a bet on the bookings index I will be going in for the high numbers. 

Does not look like Dons old boy Matt Tubbs will be playing as I've read he's out injured for a month, but both side are capable of scoring plenty and do concede their fair share so having said that I guess a 0-0 draw is nailed on? 

I will update over the weekend once I get some more team news, the teams are now confirmed and we see the return of The Beast (Akinfenwa) to the bench fresh from his Children in Need appearance.

Line Ups (confirmed);

AFC WIMBLEDON

Odds -- 3/1 (Betfair) 


Wilson (Gk),  Fuller (c), Osborne,  Robinson,  Meades,  Francomb,  Rigg,  Bulman,  Reeves,  Taylor,  Azeez


Subs – McDonnell (gk),  Kennedy,  Beere,  Akinfenwa,  Gallagher,  Kaja,  Toonga  


PORTSMOUTH
Odds -- 21/20 (Generally available) 

Murphy (Gk),  Davies,  Burgess,  Webster.  Stevens.  Hollands,  Doyle (c),  Evans,  McGurk,  Laverty,  McNulty


Subs – Bass (Gk),  Boco,  Chaplain,  Bennett,  Tollitt,  Clarke,  Atangana

H/T Score – 0 - 0

First Half Comment;
Portsmouth kick off the first half after a moments silence for the recent events in France have been observed. 

An early chance for the Wombles by Sean Rigg is well saved and then there is a "goal" but is quickly ruled out for offside (correctly) but positive signs very early here but it's 50/50 in the first 10-15 mins. 

Not a great deal happening in the opening 30 mins now, it took that long for Portsmouth to win their first corner, it's still fairly even but the only shot on target has still come from the Dons play. 

A few fouls in amongst the action but no cards yet from Mr Attwell, come on get a grip and get them cards out.
Stalemate at the end of the opening 45 mins, we can still go 6th with a win though, but I'd take a point if offered. 


F/T Score – 0 - 0

Match Summary;
Yep a bore draw it was as predicted, shame that the ref left his cards at home too (none until the 93rd min, seriously?) 

but the point earned takes the Dons up to 9th in the league and in touching distance of the play off positions at the very least.


Man of the Match – The travelling Wombles.


Referee -- Stuart Attwell [33], from Nuneaton.

Was the youngest Premier league referee ever at the age of 25 in 2008, but banished to Football League in 2012 after some high profile disasters (including that 'Phantom Goal' in the Reading game). Says he 'gets nervous before TV games'.

Well Stuart, it's on Sky Sports on Sunday so don't worry, there's hardly anyone watching.


Attendance – 15,892.

Next match:

Saturday 21st November vs Wycombe W (Home)

League Two KO 3pm

KEMPTON PARK RACES WEDNESDAY 11th NOVEMBER 2015

Good evening all today is Armistice Day so please pay your respects and ensure you've bought your poppy / or donated to the British Legion on the way in.

Moving towards the end of the year and we are still ahead with a small profit figure of +3.47. The Jumps season is now well under way and the AW season will carry on with more races at Lingfield, Wolves, Chelmsford and of course here at Kempton. 

I am sure that the Kempton staff are looking ahead to their big meeting of the whole year over Xmas but the weekly bread and butter meetings are just as important.

If we can keep in front for the whole year that'll be impressive enough for me whatever the final figure. Anyway lets crack on with tonight and target a few more winners across this line once again....

A link to tonight's race card can be found here;
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/kempton-park/11-11-2015/fast-cards

Tonight is an 8 race card where only 3 of them handicaps to ponder over, so we shall also take in the valuable Conditions event at 19:40 too. Racing commences here at 16:35 with a 5f Handicap event and concludes at 20:10 with a 1m 3f handicap.

The going on the polytrack is Standard, and there is rain currently forecast during the evening and might still be some fog or mist closing in towards the end of the meeting. It'll be colder than usual too so wrap up.

Here we go with our selections for tonight's handicaps;


16:35 -- 5f Handicap
Our opening contest is a 5f sprint affair, 10 runners are declared we will cross out the two veterans We Have a Dream and Two Turtle Doves who should be vulnerable to something with a little more spring in their step. 

Our selection though will be QUANTUM DOT [WON 4/1], a course and distance winner back in February has had a prep run a couple of weeks ago and should be ready to strike again this winter off a low mark. 


17:10 -- 5f Handicap
Another sprint, another 10 declared, but this a class 3 event and some much better horses to peruse. 

Secret Missile won recently at Chelmsford and could be opposable under top weight and different course. I will pair the chances of DYNAMO WALT [5th 8/1] / COMPTON HEIGHTS [3rd 15/8F] against the field. Both have winning form but are stepping up in class a little but should be a reasonable price.


19:40 - 7f Conditions Stakes
Our feature race tonight is a 7f Conditions event, just the 7 will set off but despite the small field it's fairly competitive and a case could be made for all of them. 

The older horses should have the measure of the two 3yo's tonight and we'll side with CHOOKIE ROYALE [WON 7/4F] to see off Grey Mirage who may just need this run after a long lay off this year.


20:10 - 1m 3f Handicap
The finale is a 1m 3f contest where 14 line up for the starter, again I think I will ignore the three old timers here (Rezwaan, King Olav and Time Square) and concentrate on the youngsters. 

Clearly San Quentin is in great form and comes here on the back of Wolves hat-trick, but will be a short price for us and will oppose on basis that he'll prefer that surface and hasn't done as well here for a while. 

There's two at 20/1+ that I fancy and will take both BAKER [3rd 20/1] and GOLLY MISS MOLLY [5th 14/1] against the field and will also back them for the place market too.

Well we might have missed the winner in the last but the place market bet paid off nicely. 

Staked -- 6 points
Returns -- 7.75 points so far

Good start with a nice opening winner in Quantum Dot at 4/1 then followed up with Chookie Royale winning the conditions event at 7/4F. This ensures a profit for tonight again and we picked up a few pennies in the place markets too now up +5.22


We'll return here next week on Wednesday 18th November.

The sun goes down ... thankfully the lights are on.

FA CUP 1ST ROUND -- WIMBLEDON vs FOREST GREEN ROVERS SAT 7th NOVEMBER 2015

It's FA CUP FIRST ROUND Day this weekend and the draw has given us a HOME tie which was nice but sadly it's against the current leaders of the conference FOREST GREEN ROVERS.

Normally you would expect to do OK against a Conference side but these guys are high on form and confidence and will come to Kingsmeadow fancying their chances of an upset. Last weekends win against Chester came after a couple of defeats to Tranmere Rovers and Eastleigh.

So we will be there to cheer on the boys in Yellow and Blue to more FA Cup glory ... we are coming on the back of three wins so confidence should be high too, if we can get a run to the round three and a possible money spinner that will help with the funds needed for the new stadium. However lets get ourselves through round one first eh.

Updates will be published with team news and more as and when it comes through. Looks like no Akinfenwa today not even on the bench so hopefully the Taylor, Elliot front line can strike and then bring on Azeez later. 


Line Ups (confirmed);

AFC WIMBLEDON

Odds -- Evens (William Hill) 





Wilson (Gk),  Fuller (c), Osborne,  Robinson,  Meades,  Kennedy,  Rigg,  Bulman,  Reeves,  Taylor,  Elliot

Subs – McDonnell (gk),  Sweeney,  Beere,  Azeez,  Gallagher,  Kaja,  Toonga  



FOREST GREEN ROVERS

Odds -- 3/1 (William Hill) 






Arnold (Gk),  Bennett,  Clough,  Jennings,  Racine,  Sinclair,  Wedgbury,  Carter,  Marsh-Brown,  Frear,  Parkin   

Subs – Pipe,  Jones,  Kelly,  Guthrie,  Bender,  Baldwin,  Maxtead

 

H/T Score – 1 - 1

First Half Comment;
Well that's wasn't the plan, a defensive slip allows Forest Green's Darren Carter to score after 6 mins. Come on Dons wake up. 

The Dons had a chance to get back on level terms but Sean Riggs header was easily saved and they still trail by that early goal. 

Dons have a period of pressure which pays off with an equaliser by Callum Kennedy in 25 mins, game on now with the home side beginning to get on top as the first half develops, lets make it count now.


F/T Score – 1 - 2

Match Summary;
Last min goal for FGR and we're out of the cup. 1-2 rubbish. 
Will make for a quite December I suppose and a free weekend with no game. Useless. 


Man of the Match – No One.


Referee -- Graham Horwood (Luton).

Appointed a Football League ref in 2011 but kicked out after a year, then reinstated after two years. Taken charge of 3 Wombles games; the 2-0 away defeat to Exeter in 2013 (4Y), 0-0 draw with Plymouth 2014 (2Y - and he went off injured at HT) & the 2-1 away loss to Stevanage in Jan (2Y). Reffed Forest Green 6 times (W1 D2 L3).


Attendance – 2,465.


Next match:
Sunday 15th November vs Portsmouth (Away)
League Two 2:30pm LIVE on SKY SPORTS

KEMPTON PARK RACES WEDNESDAY 4th NOVEMBER 2015

Good evening all and welcome to November, where has this year gone already?

Moving towards the end of the year and we are still ahead with a small profit figure of +5.22. The Jumps season is now well under way and the AW season will carry on with more races at Lingfield, Wolves, Chelmsford and of course here at Kempton. Although I am sure that the Kempton staff are looking ahead to their big meeting of the whole year over Xmas.

If we can keep in front for the whole year that'll be impressive enough for me whatever the final figure. Anyway lets crack on with tonight and target a few more winners across this line once again....

A link to tonight's race card can be found here;
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/kempton-park/04-11-2015/fast-cards

Tonight is an 8 race card with only 3 of them handicaps to ponder over, so we shall also take in the valuable Listed event at 19:10 too. Racing commences here at 16:40 with a 2m Handicap event and concludes at 20:10 with a 1m 4f handicap

The going on the polytrack is Standard to Slow, and there is rain currently forecast during the day and might still be some fog or mist closing in towards the end of the meeting. It'll be colder than usual too so wrap up.

Here we go with our selections for tonight's handicaps;


16:40 - 2m Handicap (3yo)
Our opening contest is a stayers event over 2m, 9 declared but there is little to prove that any of these are capable of staying the trip, there are no distance winners here yet something will have to come out on top. 

DUCHESS OF MARMITE (WON 9/4F) did at least get placed here last week over 12f and seemed to be doing her best work towards the end, it is possible therefore that this trip could be within her capability, but seems a short price for what has been achieved so far. We will back it to win in the absence of much realistic opposition. 

At a price of around 25/1 WILLOW JUBILEE (8th 50/1) has been campaigned around the different AW courses and over this sort of trip and while fairly one paced at least seems to stay and has placed on a few occasions. She receives weight for all her opponents and therefore could well be a bit of value for the place market / ew play tonight.

19:10 - 1m 4f Listed Stakes 

The feature race on the card is a 12f listed contest, and a good field of 9 runners are declared, of interest are the recent winners HAMELIN and SWEET P. 

They are progressing from Handicap company so I will be following the in-form FIRE FIGHTING (4th 4/1) as our selection since he's already taken a listed event recently and has been  campaigned both here in the UK and in Ireland. 

Already proven on the AW surface winning at Dundalk and Chelmsford and can give these a good run for your money.

19:40 - 1m 4f Handicap
An event that kind of revolves around the Godolphin runner MOVIE SET (2nd 5/4F), has only run the once, winning an Ascot maiden comfortably and steps into Handicap company and tackles an extra 2 furlongs, seems a reasonable mark to begin with and the opposition don't look that special. 

PERCY VEER (Non Runner) could be one for the place market, have run on to take fourth here over this trip, a repeat should be enough to get into the frame. 

20:10 - 1m 4f Handicap (3yo)
We finish off the evening with yet another 12f event, the lack of variety tonight is shocking. This is restricted to 3yo's only and they are a poor bunch overall. Only Azure Amour has a win to his name but doesn't seem to get this trip. 

Fleetwood Poppy went close last time out but seems unlikely to stay and repeat that effort here, so I am going to take a risk on GRAND FACILE (4th 7/2) who was backed for his last contest here over 1m 2f and might improve a little for another step up in trip against a very poor bunch. 



Staked -- 6 points

Returns -- 4.25 points


Results will be updated later on tonight. Lost 1.75pts tonight

We'll return here next week on Wednesday 11th November.

The sun goes down ... thankfully the lights are on.